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Are offices headed to extinction? 
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Alameda Tower
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Post Are offices headed to extinction?
I've brought up a couple times in the Google Fiber thread that cheap/fast home Internet might promote more telecommuting that could hurt office space vacancies in KC. I'm on a couple projects that will engage more teleworkers. For those who have a job that is 100% in front of a computer/phone, they are a candidate to telecommute. We're moving over 1000 employees (several US sites including KC) to full time teleworking from home. In many office oriented companies, about 8-10% of workers are candidates - likely to increase in future. It saves cube spaces, parking, fuel and prevents sewing circle chit chat in some departments that can cause workplace issues. The trend will certainly continue most everywhere depending on job type. Might accelerate in KC with cheap Google Gigabit.

Don't expect new office towers in KC (or most cities) anytime soon unless for a special purpose - and vacancies could get worse.

The Internet killed most physical CD/record stores, most video stores, most bookstores and now likely office buildings are next - or maybe a 10% hit in next few years.

http://news.yahoo.com/offices-headed-ex ... 10163.html


Tue May 29, 2012 8:06 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Thinking forward, perhaps home office towers? Condo / apartment towers with features and amenities specifically geared toward no- and white-collar office workers who telecommute? What would those features be?


Tue May 29, 2012 9:00 pm
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Alameda Tower
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
I work from home a couple days a week and only need a laptop, extra monitor and high speed connection - only need a small space. Technically I could work from home full time but manager wants us in for social time with others but frankly it's not necessary as literally every meeting is over phone/web meeting anyway to other cities. I'm guessing in another year or two, company will mandate us to work from home if this 1000 employee rollout goes well.

For those with families, a private space might be more important so an isolated office from rest of home might be a 'telecommuter feature'.

I could see condo/apt buildings converting one of the units with shared cubes. My condo association bought one unit dedicated for visitors that can be rented by the day. I could see a unit or large space in buildings that are cubed out for shared office space for those who don't want to be 'home' all day with family distractions but close enough to do home things. Larger companies may be willing to pay for the space if less than it costs for a cube in the office. The internal chargeback for a cube space in many companies is over $500/month or more for larger cubes. Company also saves the need for parking space, phone line and power too. The CBA to telecommute is worth it for many types of workers and as the technology improves, the case to telecommute will continue to increase - and the side effect will be less need for office buildings.

The biggest thing is making sure the telecommuter has enough bandwidth in home broadband connection. It's not the download speed that's hard to get, it's the upload speed, and Google Gigabit will be much much faster than other ISPs.


Tue May 29, 2012 9:48 pm
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City Center Square
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Talk concerning working from home has been around for a long time. Much like a cashless society.
Will be interesting to see how it actually develops. The at-home distractions are a big problem, especially when the distractions are kids, and with that having the space to dedicate to working at home.


Wed May 30, 2012 2:45 am
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Alameda Tower
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Many families have school aged children not at home and there are more single/dink households than ever. Probably a relatively small(er) portion have young children at home. A friend has a den/office built on other side of garage with separate entrance, which gives more privacy for work.

The teleworker momentum is real this time. Will likely just be larger companies at first as it takes an internal help desk to aid with support, which large companies already have. Once technologies get bundled together as packaged telecommuter solutions for SMBs (small/medium business) it will likely eventually pick up even more.

I don't think office space will go away (like cash won't go away) but office vacancies will likely get worse and building construction may significantly slow down. Given that Google Fiber in KC will likely encourage more telecommuting, KC may not see much office construction in the future.


Wed May 30, 2012 3:21 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
earthling wrote:
The teleworker momentum is real this time.


Indeed. I can (and do) work from home whenever I want. To be 100% honest, the main reason I come in to the office at all is for socializing with coworkers and to go out to lunch. If I weren't a 5-minute drive away, I'd come in a lot less.


Wed May 30, 2012 8:25 pm
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Colonnade
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
If offices did go away wouldn't this have a trickle down effect?

No offices mean = no janitors, no window washers,no security guards, a lot less restaurants, especially ones that cater to downtown lunch crowds,hardly any need for office supply stores, printer and paper companies would be greatly diminished, a lot less architects because there would really be no need to build more stuff, other professions would be at stake as well.

I mean the companies could take all this cost savings setting up remote companies and pass it onto the shareholders but aren't a lot of these other jobs going to be extinct as well?


Wed May 30, 2012 8:48 pm
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Alameda Tower
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Probably not that drastic but maybe not much future growth in those areas and possibly a 10% reduction or so in the cities that have the most teleworkers. There's a chance KC could become a high teleworker market with the Google Fiber thing.

For downtown KC, the City needs to focus more on residential rather than office space for many reasons. If there are more downtown residents working from home during the day, it could help maintain the lunchtime biz for restaurants anyway.


Wed May 30, 2012 9:34 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Many of us while teleworking often meet our coworkers out anyway, sitting in a coffee shop or restaurant for several hours instead of the office.


Wed May 30, 2012 10:10 pm
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City Center Square
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
[quote="brewcrew1000"]If offices did go away wouldn't this have a trickle down effect?

No offices mean = no janitors, no window washers,no security guards, a lot less restaurants, especially ones that cater to downtown lunch crowds,etc.quote]

Could also lead to less density in that people will be freer to choose where to live as opposed to finding someplace close to work or mass transit.


Wed May 30, 2012 11:25 pm
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Colonnade
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
aknowledgeableperson wrote:
Could also lead to less density in that people will be freer to choose where to live as opposed to finding someplace close to work or mass transit.

Arguably, for places such as KC, it could lead to the opposite as a good chunk of jobs are in the suburbs, not urban KC.
While people would no longer need to find a place to closer to work or along a mass transit line, there would still be a desire (notably among the younger demographic) to live in a spot that doesn't require driving a mile+ for shopping, food, entertainment, etc.
So let's say your job is in Olathe, but you want to live in Westport or DT. Normally you would have to either give up on that hope and simply live in JoCo, or you could bite the bullet and prepare to commute. Working from home eliminates either one of those uncomfortable options.

Of course, if, after that, people still want to live in the suburbs, they will live in the suburbs. But the greater flexibility of choice is there, and more than a few people desire living in the urban core even though the job is in the suburbs.
And, this is unlikely to spell the end for the office anyways because there are also always people who desire work in such a setting, and there are going to be those jobs that require you to be in-building; may result in smaller offices though. Also the current limited range of the communication network, the need for a plan B in case the lines do go down, plus possible incentives, is likely to prevent cases of people simply choosing to live in the different city than the company.


Thu May 31, 2012 3:08 am
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
IraGlacialis wrote:
aknowledgeableperson wrote:
Could also lead to less density in that people will be freer to choose where to live as opposed to finding someplace close to work or mass transit.

Arguably, for places such as KC, it could lead to the opposite as a good chunk of jobs are in the suburbs, not urban KC.


If that happens, I would fear for the few wild places left in the western US. Many people would be less likely to be in Kansas City and more like to be in trendy little towns across the western US. I think Houston would lose 1/2 its literate population overnight to the likes of Moab, Prescott, Grants Pass, Durango, Bozeman etc....

Alas, while I can work at home at times, it's really not practical for my job to do it on a consistent basis. I work too closely with other disciplines to be able to be to do what I do on my own - although HP remote graphics and a few other desktop sharing softwares make it more and more of a possibility.


Thu May 31, 2012 3:52 am
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Colonnade
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Highlander wrote:
If that happens, I would fear for the few wild places left in the western US. Many people would be less likely to be in Kansas City and more like to be in trendy little towns across the western US. I think Houston would lose 1/2 its literate population overnight to the likes of Moab, Prescott, Grants Pass, Durango, Bozeman etc....

Alas, while I can work at home at times, it's really not practical for my job to do it on a consistent basis. I work too closely with other disciplines to be able to be to do what I do on my own - although HP remote graphics and a few other desktop sharing softwares make it more and more of a possibility.

Yes, there is that concern that an increase in working a home could lead to population dissipation. But, like I mentioned before, there would likely be company incentives and infrastructural constraints (the cities are, at least now, more likely to have consistent internet to keep telecommuting sustainable vs the isolated towns mentioned) that would keep people within a relative close proximity to the office.

And in the end, as mentioned in your second sentence, practicality dictates that there are time where one simply has to go to the office.


Thu May 31, 2012 4:42 am
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Alameda Tower
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
The dispersal to smaller towns is already happening in our company. Several who started to telecommute full time ended up moving to a small town hundreds of miles from any of our nearest offices. They visit a major office just a few times a year.

The silicon-based social interaction of the younger generation is very different than those of us who grew up in a carbon based face-to-face society. Texting is preferred to voice calls, Facebook is preferred to hanging out in a video arcade or roller rink. By the time they hit the workforce, teleworking will probably be the norm rather than the exception - depending on job type of course. There was a concept known as 'cyberpunk' in the 80s that is starting to be realized for better or worse.. a loose interpretation is that you interact in the digital world by default and in the carbon based world by choice. To older generations that's a social disorder... it may become the new norm with the next working generation.

Engaging in this forum is just on example.


Last edited by earthling on Mon Jun 04, 2012 3:17 am, edited 1 time in total.



Thu May 31, 2012 2:54 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
mean wrote:
earthling wrote:
The teleworker momentum is real this time.


Indeed. I can (and do) work from home whenever I want. To be 100% honest, the main reason I come in to the office at all is for socializing with coworkers and to go out to lunch. If I weren't a 5-minute drive away, I'd come in a lot less.


I have worked from home for six years now and I am frankly tired of it. I'd like a job that at least required me to go to the office once a week or so. I haven't been to my "office" in three years. Aside from a few people, everyone at the holiday parties is a stranger to me.

I think there will always be a place for meeting up in person, although like others have mentioned, this could happen in other common areas (which stresses the need for more common meeting areas like this in America!) Also, teleconferencing technology needs to improve (or maybe its the company I work for uses obsolete technology) but I can never hear a damn thing during our teleconferences.


Thu May 31, 2012 3:58 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
I have been working in coffee shops for years now and I have noticed only two kinds of people do work in coffee shops. Social media consultants, and church-affiliated volunteers. 90% of the conversations I overhear are about either Twitter or Jesus.


Thu May 31, 2012 4:33 pm
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Alameda Tower
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
KCMax wrote:
Also, teleconferencing technology needs to improve (or maybe its the company I work for uses obsolete technology) but I can never hear a damn thing during our teleconferences.


Teleconferencing with a physical meeting room involved doesn't work well for those on a phone. Most of us make it a point not to use a meeting room and schedule meetings with everyone on their computer at desk/home using web-based conferencing where everyone sees the document on their own screen and everyone is on phone. The web-based conference and digital whiteboard software out now is really good, lots of options, but it doesn't work as well if some are in a meeting room - best when all are at their own computers and all are on own phones with no speakerphones involved.

Larger companies that are already multi-site can more easily pull this off but it might be a few more years before solid bundled/packaged teleworker solutions are available to plug and play into smaller companies, though it can still be easily done on any scale. Think gotomeeting.com.

To make it work management has to adapt the workplace culture that caters to teleworkers and conferencing with multiple sites, not favor physical meeting rooms.


Last edited by earthling on Mon Jun 04, 2012 3:19 am, edited 1 time in total.



Thu May 31, 2012 4:46 pm
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Broadway Square
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
KCMax wrote:
I have been working in coffee shops for years now and I have noticed only two kinds of people do work in coffee shops. Social media consultants, and church-affiliated volunteers. 90% of the conversations I overhear are about either Twitter or Jesus.



Uh, that Jesus stuff was just me complaining about the state of my economy.


Thu May 31, 2012 6:52 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
Surely this is already happening? My ex's company drastically reduced their space in Corporate Woods about 4 years ago and he's had a home office since then. He's a consultant, so travels much of the time but still, he didn't even have a cubicle at the company office here. I rent an office because I'm a lawyer and I have to sit down with clients quite often due to my practice area, and don't like meeting them in restaurants and certainly not at home. Also I am in an office building with a bunch of other lawyers and I like having people to talk to. But I work from home a lot, and have my computers set up so they network almost seamlessly. And the office I rent is tiny/cheap because I keep most of the files etc in my home office.


Thu May 31, 2012 11:35 pm
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Post Re: Are offices headed to extinction?
kansas wrote:
Also I am in an office building with a bunch of other lawyers and I like having people to talk to. But I work from home a lot, and have my computers set up so they network almost seamlessly. And the office I rent is tiny/cheap because I keep most of the files etc in my home office.


Are you in an arrangement where might share a receptionist and some other office functions? Or is a stand-alone arrangement?


Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:07 am
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